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- New analysis from the BlackRock Investment Institute shows that the economic damage inflicted by the pandemic will be just a fraction of the losses seen following the Great Financial Crisis
- The firm says encouraging recent vaccine data from Moderna and Pfizer reinforces this view.
- “Positive news on COVID vaccines gives us greater confidence that the economic restart can re-accelerate in 2021,” said a team of BlackRock analysts in a Monday note.
- Although a renewed surge in coronavirus infections and resulting lockdowns may disrupt the economy in the short-term, the vaccine gives investors and governments a “bridge to somewhere,” said BlackRock.
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The post-coronavirus economy continues to prove that it defies historical comparison.
On Monday, analysts from the BlackRock Investment Institute forecasted that the long-term damage from the pandemic will be nowhere near as devastating as the losses following the 2008 financial crisis. News of two highly effective vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer reinforce this forecast, said a team of analysts led by Jean Boivin.
“Positive news on COVID vaccines gives us greater confidence that the economic restart can re-accelerate in 2021 – and that the cumulative activity loss from the virus shock will ultimately be a fraction of that seen after the global financial crisis,” BlackRock said.
In a chart comparing the US gross domestic product shortfall from the Great Financial Crisis to the estimated fallout from the ongoing pandemic, BlackRock demonstrated that cumulative losses will be just a fraction of what was seen after the 2008 debacle.
BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Reuters News
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Although a renewed surge in coronavirus infections and resulting lockdowns may disrupt the economy in the short-term, vaccine progress indicates that there is a way out of the pandemic, added BlackRock.
“The game changer is that we now know we are building a bridge to somewhere, providing more clarity for governments and companies about getting to the post-COVID stage,” said BlackRock. “That will make it easier to absorb any near-term disappointments and have greater confidence in the restart plan.”
BlackRock is moderately pro-risk and has a neutral rating for US stocks. It also sports an overweight weighting for stocks in emerging markets and Asia (except Japan). BlackRock said China and a number of other Asian countries have done a better job of containing the coronavirus and are further on the path to an economic recovery. Also, broad emerging -arkets stocks are likely to benefit from stable trade policy under a Biden administration, said the analysts.
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